Duet Or Ménage À Trois? An AL East Preview 2010

Last year the Yankees (ugh) took home the ring. The year before, the Rays lost to the Phillies in the World Series. And three years ago, the Red Sox won. Needless to say, the AL East is looking to have a repeat appearance this year. But who?

The Red Sox made some moves to shore up defense, the Yankees lost a few bats, and the Rays and Orioles reloaded with young prospects and solid trades.

So who is going to win?

If the Yankees could get consistent starts from their three-four-five guys, they could win the division.

Is that likely? No.

The Red Sox lost a big bat in Jason Bay but added John Lackey, who could be a number one starter. In actuality, he starting number three, behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. He'll be followed by the seemingly ageless Wakefield, Dick-K, and the young, talented Clay Buchholz. Now, Dice-K is injured and we're not really sure how Buchholz is going to do, but if they all bounce back, the Sox could go for a six man rotation.

Not likely, but it could happen.

The Rays, as always, are the Dark Horse. They have iffy pitching and young guys just starting their careers, but they are faster than the Yankees and Red Sox. Not to mention, they are very talented. Of course that youth does lend itself to inconsistency, especially playing in Boston and New York, where the fans can be pretty hostile. Taking that all into consideration, do they win over 90 games?

Eh. Maybe.

The Orioles are better. Not great, but certainly much better than last year. And Toronto...well, we'll go ahead and label this a rebuilding year for them. They traded away Doc Halladay, it's to be expected.

So with opening day just hours away (hallelujah!), what else would we do but make predictions on what is going to happen six months from now? Bear in mind I am not using any sort of scientific formulas, stats, or anything on these predictions, which is contrary to the typical baseball fan's thinking. (Admit it, we love stats!)

I'm doing something new this year, I'm going with my gut. I've watched these guys all spring, and this is what I came up with it.



First, my final division standings:

Red Sox
Rays*
Yankees
Orioles
Blue Jays


Call me a homer, but I really like this Red Sox team. They are a little faster, their defense is better, and the addition of John Lackey is a huge boost to the pitching staff. The bullpen is good, and Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings, so if Jonathan Papelbon struggles with closing, he can be replaced. I don't see that happening, but I'm sure that a little competition would be a good way to get his competitive juices flowing.
Plus, who wants to face a weekend where your pitchers are Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey?
Yikes.
And you've got Jacoby Ellsbury, who is stellar and still not done developing. Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia are great at the plate, and if Papi returns to form?
Double yikes.
If they all stay healthy and the pitchers stay on their form, there's no reason this team can't win the division.

Now to explain the asterisk on the Rays.
Like I said, the Rays are the Dark Horse. Evan Longoria is a beast, and they have a few young guys like B.J. Upton who are due for a breakout year. A few good trades and young talent means this Rays team is a lot like the one that went to the World Series in 2008.
I just get a feeling about this team. But here's a caveat. I think the Rays will get off to a big start, but if they start to falter around the All-Star break, I'm going to put them out of the playoffs. I just think that if they get too far behind or see themselves slipping, they might fold under the pressure. So that's why I put the Rays as the Wild card*.

So on to Steinbrenner and his evil Minions.
Let's start with the pitching staff. C.C. Sabathia is a beast. There's no denying that, but after him gets a little...iffy. A.J. Burnett doesn't like throwing to Jorge Posada, but Jose Molina is gone, so he has no choice. Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez are good inning eaters, but Pettitte's age makes him a question mark.
And yes, Mark Teixeira, Jeter, A-Rod, they can all hit, but the Yankees bench isn't exactly deep this year. The losses of Judas (I mean Johnny) Damon and Matsui hurts them in terms of power. The Yankees look good this year, but repeating is very difficult, and in a division this tough? Eh.
I have them (maybe) not making the playoffs. But that's dependent on the Rays.
My prediction for the Yanks is third/Wild card. They played like a team on a mission last year and I just don't get that feeling from them now.


As for the other teams in the AL East...
The Orioles really did a lot this year, and while they probably won't make the playoffs, they will make life hard on everyone else in the East. They have a young staff that in a few years could really give the rest of the AL East headaches, and we could see flashes of that this season. My prediction, they finish in fourth place.

The Blue Jays...they won't do much this year. They couldn't make it to the playoffs when they had the one-two punch of Halladay and Burnett. They've got some good players, but it's not enough to compete in a division that has the Yankees and Red Sox.

We'll start to see things heat up in this division around the All-Star break, that's when the good teams will separate from the bad and the ugly. Then we'll know if we have a Red Sox-Yankees duet or a Red Sox-Rays-Yankees Ménage À Trois.

Crysal Ball: A Look at the 2009 NFL Season

The 2009 season of NFL football looks to be an interesting one. 11 head-coaching changes (many of them new to the job), the Cutler Diva Drama, hold outs, the return of Tom Terrific, and the possible returns of Vick and Favre.

With all of these variables, and with roster cuts far in the future, predictions right now are a little premature. But its fun, and if I happen to be right at the end of the season I can look back and say "wow, I called that in June!"

We'll start with the NFC

NFC West

This is a difficult division to call, because there are 3 new head coaches in the division (well, Singletary was interim last year, but...) Here go my picks:

1. Arizona. I'm giving the division to the Cards because, despite the Superbowl hang-over, they are (right now) the most-stable team with the least likelihood of some kind of roster shake-up.
2. Seattle. Experience and maturity keeps them in the mix in this soft division, but that maturity could bring them down if the injury bug bites.
3. San Francisco. They could possibly take the division or they could lose every game. The 9ers are in a state of flux, because they don't have their starting QB named, and they're still looking at getting him offensive weapons. If it was August, this would be a problem, good thing for them its June.
4. St. Louis. After a dismal season, the Rams have made a coaching change and some cuts and trades. I wouldn't look for them to be Superbowl champs this year, but I would call this year a "rebuilding" one. They look like they're making all the right steps, so it should be an interesting year for the Rams.


1. NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons. I like the Falcons because I feel like they have a lot of young talent, good coaching, and went through a post-Vick karmic rebirth last season. They are not the Falcons they were under Vick, and even though its a tough division, I think the Falcons come out on top.
2. New Orleans. If they can get the defense to match that high-powered offense, and no one gets arrested or anything, the Saints should be a force to be reckoned with.
3. Carolina. The Panthers are coming off a decent NFL season, but they have to find balance in their offense. Great running offense, okay passing, but the defense will be the key here. Peppers is unhappy, which causes distractions, and may end up causing a trade, which would be very bad for Carolina.
4. Tampa Bay. I do not have an irrational hatred for all things Tampa Bay, I promise. (I still hate the Rays and their cowbells, but I'm neutral on the Bucs) The reason Tampa Bay is down here? One, its a tough division, the teams are pretty equal in talent, and two, coaching change.


NFC North

I'm not even going to try ranking these teams. A Chicago Bears with Cutler could take the division, a Minnesota Vikings with Vick in the Wildcat and Jackson under center could take the division, a Vikings with Favre under center could take the division, and the Green Bay Packers with Rodgers are still a force to be reckoned with and they could take the division.

The only thing I feel comfortable picking for the NFC North is this: the Detroit Lions will not win the division.


NFC East

1. Philadelphia. They made some good off-season moves, they didn't loose anyone too big, they picked up a great WR in the draft in Maclin, and they picked up a coordinator who worked with the Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator last year. That is bound to help. I like the addition of another ex-Patriot in Hobbs, he's inconsistent, but the Eagles secondary is good enough that they won't notice.
2. (3 or 4) Dallas. The loss of TO is big. They needed him as that deep threat and to draw the double-team. There's also a lot of pressure on them this year to preform, they've been so good and projected to be NFC favorites, and win the Superbowl, but they can't win in the post-season. They are like the NFL version of the Chicago Cubs, only without the championship drought. (For those of you who don't know, the Cubs ha ve now lost 9 straight post-season games. That's three years of being out in the first round.)
3. (2 or 4) New York. (Or Jersey...) The Giants are still a good team. They have that big distraction named Buruss still hanging around, and they lost their defensive genius to a head coaching job, but they'll make some noise in this division.
4. (2 or 3) Washington. The Redskins need confidence. They need their QB to have it, their coaches to have it, and their fans to have it. The reason I have put the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins with the possibility of moving up or down the rankings is because all three teams have the talent and the ability to win games, maybe even win the division. The question is, will they reach their potential?


Now onto the AFC

AFC West

1. San Diego. They should again be a playoff team. They have the talent, a few injured players returning, and a descent off-season. LT may be on the decline, however, so that could shake things up in the west a bit.
2. Denver. New head coach Josh McDaniels made a splash early in the off-season with the Cutler Diva Drama. It ended in a messy divorce that will hurt the Broncos, but they should still win some games and probably won't have a losing record.
3. Kansas City. The additions of Pioli, Cassel, and Vrabel from the Patriots certainly help this team who did pretty much nothing last year. It will be up to Cassel to prove that he's not just flash in the pan and new coach Haley to prove that this team can win games. The only place to go is up.
4. Oakland. I think we have to face one truth in all of this: as long as Al Davis gets to make decisions, the Raiders are screwed. If new head coach Tom Cable can stand up to Davis and avoid being fired, that team has a lot of talent, if not...


AFC South

Like the NFC North, this is a division I just can't make up my mind on. Saint Tony has retired, along with a good bit of the coaching staff. Its gotten so bad that Peyton Manning has actually called them out on national TV. He's clearly frustrated and uncomfortable with what has to be a big change for the Colts. No Rhodes, no Harrison, and new coaching may make the beginning of the season tough for Manning and Co. They could win the division or this could be called a "building year".

Between Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston, with the talent they have and the moves they've made in the off-season, I don't have a favorite. My gut tells me that it will be one of these three, not the Colts, who wins the division.


AFC North

1. (or 2) Baltimore. Tough defense, good arm and football IQ for Flaco (trust me, I've seen him play live and its amazing), and a gritty, tough vibe, the Ravens look good. They are my tentative number one, because like the Colts, you can never count the Steelers out.
2. (or 1) Pittsburgh. The possibility of the Superbowl hangover is looming, the chance that Big Ben takes up alligator wrestling to top his motorcycle accident is there, and the Madden curse is just waiting in the wings to claim another victim. Despite all of that, the Steelers are again in contention for division.
3. Cleveland. This town deserves someone to play well. While I don't think the Browns have any shot at the post-season, I think they will win as many games as they lose this year.
4. Cincinnati. The Bengals are all over the place, they are getting arrested, not showing up for training camp but showing up on ESPN in LA doing something completely unrelated to football. They are just a mess. And if you think those off-field distractions won't bother their game, wrong.


AFC East

1. New England. Number 12 is back, Welker and Moss know the offense better this year, they picked up some good free agents, and made some good draft day moves to freshen up an aging defense. The loss of Vrabel and the retirement of Harrison does not help, but Rodney Harrison was injury-prone, and Vrabel is past his prime. The additions of Galloway and Taylor are excellent, considering they ha ve three passing weapons, and Taylor can join the Morris-Maroney running back by committee group. Look for them to be the top of the AFC east, and possibly the AFC.
2. Miami. Ronnie Brown and Chad Pennington will do their best to take the Dolphins back to the playoffs. They could be a wild card team, they could even possibly take the division, but with an entire off-season and hours of film, I don't think defensive coordinators will be fooled by the Wildcat.
3. New York Jets. (Or Jersey...) All eyes will be on Sanchez this year which is probably not great for the young Rookie. I wouldn't look for him to be the post- Favre savior, but as long as he doesn't crack, he should win a few games. I wouldn't look for the Jets to be as dangerous this year, new head coach, new QB, etc., but they made some good moves for next year.
4. Buffalo. I know, TO is at Buffalo. He'll help them. But you have to remember, the AFC East secondary is used to going up against guys like Randy Moss, they won't be dazzled by TO's ability to catch balls no human should. Sure, he'll help the Bills, and they certainly won't be a bad team, but I think them taking the division is a little far-fetched.

That's all my rankings, premature and slightly-biased though they may be. Feel free to argue!

30 Days Has September...

...and I think the Sox will be there (knock on wood and cross my fingers, do not be angered baseball gods!)

Right now, the Sox are 5 games back of the Rays, and 3 games ahead of the ChiSox/Twins (tied for the lead in the AL Central and for 2nd in the Wild Card) the Yankees, in 3rd for the Wild Card at 7 games back, still wait, ready to ruin someone's playoff hopes. I know that they are not likely to make it to October, but they are the Yankees, and you can never say never.

A few good things are happening this week: the return of Josh Beckett (hopefully to last year's sept-oct form), the possible (likely) return of Mike Lowell, and later we might see JD Drew, Colon, and maybe even Buchholz. Also, the Red Sox play mostly at home (even though it is against mostly decent teams), while the Rays, Yankees, White Sox and Twins play mostly on the road (Yay!). This might not necessarily make much of a difference, but it is a lot harder to win on the road and it's a lot harder for the Sox to lose at home (it happens, but our chances of winning double when we play at home).

I just want to say how proud I am of the way they've played this year. The Red Sox have been through the ringer this year (not as bad as '06, but not good) We lost Manny; Big Papi, Mike Lowell, JD Drew, Dice-K, Wake and Beckett have all had stints on the DL. Youk and Ellsbury have missed a smattering of games with random minor injuries and illness, Ellsbury has been having a hard time batting in the number 1 spot (his bat is inconsistent), Lowrie, Pedroia, Bailey, Casey, Youk, Lowell, Lugo, and Cora have all put in time in the infield, with only Pedroia playing daily at his spot. And to top it all off, the Captain has been like an automatic out at the plate (though he is hitting much better recently)

That's all the bad that's been the summer months of the 2008 season. Now for the good:

-JD Drew being Mr. June and winning MVP of the All-Star game (where the Sox were well represented)

-Dustin Pedroia (pictured). Building on a fantabulous rookie season, Dustin has become an RBI machine, with an astounding on-base percentage and playing like he's at home in every stadium. Excellent fielding, fast runner, and very good at adapting to other situations, he should be a candidate for MVP.

-Jacoby Ellsbury. Despite his struggles with the bat this season, that boy has wheels. He
steals bases like a kid snagging candy from a 7-11. He makes great catches, mostly
because he can make it from one area of the outfield to another in seconds and goes for it every time.

-Jason Bay. JBay fits in at Boston like he was meant to play here. He hits, he makes
plays, and most importantly: we have a left-fielder who's play gets him more headlines than
his attitude and his antics. (Sorry Manny, I will always love you, but I am looking forward to
Bay playing all of September)

-Jon Lester. In the years to come, he just might be the best pitcher in baseball. He threw a no-hitter, he's beaten cancer, and according to Varitek, who is an excellent judge in
pitchers, we've only begun to see what he can do.

-Bailey, Lowrie, and all the other new additions: The Paw-Sox were beastly this year. And every time the Sox called up a player to the Show, they've done well. Especially Bailey and Lowrie. (Lowrie has finally made Sox fans secure in who was playing at short. We weren't worried about the errors.) Plus the players we've added over the season, everyone has been pulling their weight.

-Youk. Kevin Youkilis should be the AL MVP this year. He's played first, he's played third, he's been an RBI machine. He's moved into Manny's spot and taken on the burden of hitting after Papi. But don't tell him about the MVP, he would much rather have a ring.

Now, to recap the game.

Byrd hung in there to get his third win, but the O's hung around until the last inning, threatening to take over, but Paps hung in there to notch another save. It was not a good night for the bats. We left 12 men on base. 12. Despite back to back HRs by Tek and Bailey, the Sox had a hard time producing with men in scoring position.
A W is a W and on a night where the Rays were idle, it was a good win to make up some ground on the AL East leading youngsters.

A good night for Boston, despite a shaky performance. That game should have been a blow-out. Up tonight is Lester vs. Liz. Last time the Sox took on Liz, they hammered him, scoring eight runs and knocking Liz out of the game in the 3rd. Lester has had a shakier month in August compared to some of the other months he's pitched, but his version of shaky is losing 2 decisions in six starts, and having one game where he didn't go 6+ innings. He bounced back after that particular start to hold the Yanks to just 2 runs, walking none and striking out 8. He is 2-0 against the O's this season.

As September gets going, look for the Sox to call up some players and have all their injured men come back from the DL, ready to make a strong push for October.

Now, onto Football:

The season kicks off with Jersey/A (NYG) vs. the Skins on Thursday, and everyone else follows on Sunday and Monday. The NFC East looks like a beast this season, so don't expect any of those teams to run away with the division. The Patriots should again take the AFC East, though the division did get a little tougher with the addition of the Farve and with the young talent added to Buffalo. Brady should start, despite a "sore foot" that has plagued him all pre-season. (Note, "sore foot" might be Bellichick speak for "not really injured, just trying to throw you off) So here's my NFL predictions, starting with the NFC.

NFC Champs: If the Cowboys can win 1 playoff game, they'll win them all. If not, go with the Saints or the Eagles or the Skins...maybe the Vikings.

AFC Champs: Patriots (sorry, they're beasts). Maybe the Colts, the Chargers (depending on Merriman) and the Jags, or the Browns.