We've Got Cabin Fever...It's Burning In Our Brain

We've been snowed in for almost a week now. Not Boston-level snowed in by any stretch of the imagination, but snowed in for us, which basically means 4" of snow, some ice, and Hoth-level temperatures for the rest of the week. Which means I haven't been in school all week. 

So let me go over a few things I haven't talked about on my hiatus. First off, can we just celebrate for a moment the fact that the Patriots are SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS?????

I'm done!!! That was such an AWESOME moment. I literally fell on the floor (I was at a party, people can vouch for this).

And I heard the best Boston sports question EVER the week after the Super Bowl:

If you walked into a bar and Malcolm Butler and Dave Roberts were both there and you only have enough money to buy one of them a drink, who do you buy for?

Ug. I can't even decide. Butler put to rest so many demons...Spygate, 2007, 2011...but Dave Roberts's steal basically started off the chain reaction that put to rest 86 years of nonsense for the Red Sox. Too hard. Can't do it.

Speaking of the Red Sox, it's SPRING TRAINING! It's HERE! PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORTED TODAY! BASEBALL SEASON IS STARTED!!!!!!

I'm so stinking excited. Not only because I love baseball (seriously...love it) but because it's like the heralding of spring. It means that all this stupid winter stuff is going to melt away and the temperatures will warm up (it's a balmy 18 degrees right now...) and we can pull out the spring clothes and get ready for that magical time known as SUMMER.

I can't even...

So on to another topic. I've had a lot of time this snow break to work on finances. Dave Ramsey. So fun. It's in the book a little, but I didn't realize how absolutely irritating the, let's just call them "DR Doldrums" are. I'm almost done with my first debt (yay!) and then I'll start snowballing the next debt. And I see the light way, way, way at the end of the tunnel but right now all I keep thinking is "AM I EVER GOING TO HAVE ANY MONEY AGAIN?". 

I know. I know. Stick to the plan. It's going to work out if you stick to the plan. It's like loosing weight. It sucks while you're doing it, and you may not see progress ALL the time, but the end is worth all the work and sweat and healthy eating. 

I'm going with the mantra I have been learning to apply to everything: Jesus take the wheel.

Right now I'm discouraged, right now I don't want to snowball my debts, I want to go to Hawaii and buy new spring clothes and shop and go out more. But that's not how this works. That's what got me into this mess, and stopping all those behaviors is what will get me out. 

It's exactly like loosing weight. I had to change the way I ate, completely, before I could really start to lose (30 lbs so far! and continuing) So with my finances I have to change the way I think and the way I do things. And once that first debt is gone, it'll feel really good and I will get that adrenaline boost, similar to the one you get from losing 5 lbs. And then I'll feel more ready to tackle the next debt and it will snowball, but right now I still have the debt, I have lots of things coming up I need to pay for, and I'm in the DR Doldrums. I'll just have to keep watching highlights of Super Bowl XLIX and see pictures from Spring Training to help motivate me. Because if I ever want to GO to spring training or buy Patriots things again, I have to get my brain in a better financial place. 

Jesus take the wheel, cause I'm gonna crash if I drive. And just so I don't end this blog on a low note, here's Tom Brady jumping up and down in reaction to the Butler interception (what was Carroll thinking????)

Shopping Secrets and #RE2PECT

As a Red Sox fan, I hate all things Yankee. Seriously. Hate it. With one exception: Derek Jeter. 

Jeter, you will be missed. As much as it hurts me to say that, you will be missed. Quick...I have to compensate for leading off this blog with a picture of a YANKEE...

okay. I feel better. phew. 

Sorry. It's hard for a die hahd Sawx girl to talk about anyone who plays in pinstripes, even if he is completely respectable and an asset to the game. 

Speaking of baseball, despite my opinion that the All-Star game (hereafter abbreviated ASG) is completely overrated and ridiculous, it's still baseball and I'm still gonna watch. Also speaking of baseball, I'm finally going to a game this season! Yay! 

No, the Red Sox aren't playing. I'm going to see the Nats and Brewers. I have never seen the Brewers play before so this should be fun. I like Nat's Park too. You can take the metro right to it and there is something fun about riding on public transportation when everyone is going to same place and it's a fun place. It gives you a sense of camaraderie. 

Moving on from sports to my other love, shoes. I have a secret for you ladies, especially if you have a size 7.5 or smaller foot. The BEST place to get cute shoes at a low price is Dress Barn Women. Some Dress Barns are combined, misses sizes and women's sizes, but some are separate. So Dress Barn Women sells the plus size clothes. Most of the women who shop there , many of them are very tall, which means their foot size is larger. So that means all their clearance shoes are size 6, 6.5, 7, and 7.5 with a handful of larger sizes. When my mom said she was thinking about going there today because she had a coupon my response was this:

And good thing too. Ten minutes later, I was walking out of the store with a pair of green flats studded with gold squares and a pair of subtle cowboy booties. My total? $16.00.

That's right. TWO pairs of shoes for $16.00. That's $8.00 a pair. You can't really beat that. And to top it off, Dress Barn actually sells nice, fairly comfortable shoes. So remember this ladies: if you have tiny feet, check the clearance shoes at the plus size stores. And I'm actually pretty sure the opposite works too. 

So if I don't blog again until I get back, sorry. I'm just...

I really need to lay off the coffee. And the gifs. :/ 

Peace :)

Duet Or Ménage À Trois? An AL East Preview 2010

Last year the Yankees (ugh) took home the ring. The year before, the Rays lost to the Phillies in the World Series. And three years ago, the Red Sox won. Needless to say, the AL East is looking to have a repeat appearance this year. But who?

The Red Sox made some moves to shore up defense, the Yankees lost a few bats, and the Rays and Orioles reloaded with young prospects and solid trades.

So who is going to win?

If the Yankees could get consistent starts from their three-four-five guys, they could win the division.

Is that likely? No.

The Red Sox lost a big bat in Jason Bay but added John Lackey, who could be a number one starter. In actuality, he starting number three, behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. He'll be followed by the seemingly ageless Wakefield, Dick-K, and the young, talented Clay Buchholz. Now, Dice-K is injured and we're not really sure how Buchholz is going to do, but if they all bounce back, the Sox could go for a six man rotation.

Not likely, but it could happen.

The Rays, as always, are the Dark Horse. They have iffy pitching and young guys just starting their careers, but they are faster than the Yankees and Red Sox. Not to mention, they are very talented. Of course that youth does lend itself to inconsistency, especially playing in Boston and New York, where the fans can be pretty hostile. Taking that all into consideration, do they win over 90 games?

Eh. Maybe.

The Orioles are better. Not great, but certainly much better than last year. And Toronto...well, we'll go ahead and label this a rebuilding year for them. They traded away Doc Halladay, it's to be expected.

So with opening day just hours away (hallelujah!), what else would we do but make predictions on what is going to happen six months from now? Bear in mind I am not using any sort of scientific formulas, stats, or anything on these predictions, which is contrary to the typical baseball fan's thinking. (Admit it, we love stats!)

I'm doing something new this year, I'm going with my gut. I've watched these guys all spring, and this is what I came up with it.



First, my final division standings:

Red Sox
Rays*
Yankees
Orioles
Blue Jays


Call me a homer, but I really like this Red Sox team. They are a little faster, their defense is better, and the addition of John Lackey is a huge boost to the pitching staff. The bullpen is good, and Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings, so if Jonathan Papelbon struggles with closing, he can be replaced. I don't see that happening, but I'm sure that a little competition would be a good way to get his competitive juices flowing.
Plus, who wants to face a weekend where your pitchers are Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey?
Yikes.
And you've got Jacoby Ellsbury, who is stellar and still not done developing. Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia are great at the plate, and if Papi returns to form?
Double yikes.
If they all stay healthy and the pitchers stay on their form, there's no reason this team can't win the division.

Now to explain the asterisk on the Rays.
Like I said, the Rays are the Dark Horse. Evan Longoria is a beast, and they have a few young guys like B.J. Upton who are due for a breakout year. A few good trades and young talent means this Rays team is a lot like the one that went to the World Series in 2008.
I just get a feeling about this team. But here's a caveat. I think the Rays will get off to a big start, but if they start to falter around the All-Star break, I'm going to put them out of the playoffs. I just think that if they get too far behind or see themselves slipping, they might fold under the pressure. So that's why I put the Rays as the Wild card*.

So on to Steinbrenner and his evil Minions.
Let's start with the pitching staff. C.C. Sabathia is a beast. There's no denying that, but after him gets a little...iffy. A.J. Burnett doesn't like throwing to Jorge Posada, but Jose Molina is gone, so he has no choice. Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez are good inning eaters, but Pettitte's age makes him a question mark.
And yes, Mark Teixeira, Jeter, A-Rod, they can all hit, but the Yankees bench isn't exactly deep this year. The losses of Judas (I mean Johnny) Damon and Matsui hurts them in terms of power. The Yankees look good this year, but repeating is very difficult, and in a division this tough? Eh.
I have them (maybe) not making the playoffs. But that's dependent on the Rays.
My prediction for the Yanks is third/Wild card. They played like a team on a mission last year and I just don't get that feeling from them now.


As for the other teams in the AL East...
The Orioles really did a lot this year, and while they probably won't make the playoffs, they will make life hard on everyone else in the East. They have a young staff that in a few years could really give the rest of the AL East headaches, and we could see flashes of that this season. My prediction, they finish in fourth place.

The Blue Jays...they won't do much this year. They couldn't make it to the playoffs when they had the one-two punch of Halladay and Burnett. They've got some good players, but it's not enough to compete in a division that has the Yankees and Red Sox.

We'll start to see things heat up in this division around the All-Star break, that's when the good teams will separate from the bad and the ugly. Then we'll know if we have a Red Sox-Yankees duet or a Red Sox-Rays-Yankees Ménage À Trois.

Red Sox and Yankees: Rivals Go Head-To-Head For The First Time in 2009

The Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is the best in baseball, and possibly the best in professional sports. I was raised to hate the Yankees, I mean, really, really hate them. I have a friend who was raised the same way, only opposite. She was raised to hate the Red Sox.

Why?

Who cares? It's fun! It is certainly not a friendly rivalry, but its fun to have a "bad guy" to unite against. Its a showdown of good versus evil, the Red Sox Nation vs. the Evil Empire, minor tweaks vs. major, multi-million dollar overhaul.

A rivalry, yes, but most definately a fun one.

Of course, with this rivalry, things can and do tend to go too far. With Joba Chamberlain on the mound tonight, things might get a little interesting.

If you recall from the previous two seasons, there is some bad blood between Chamberlain and Youkilis. Why? Who knows. Fact of the matter is, Joba's thrown at Youkilis four times. Four.

So far, no brawls, but it is getting a little ridiculous. Buzzing a player inside is one thing, its acceptable, its part of the game, but throwing at hitters, at their heads, is unacceptable. When Josh Beckett did it earlier this season, it was an accident and everyone knew it. When Joba did it last season, it was no accident.

If he does it again, judging by the reactions last time, there will most likely be a brawl or an ejection, or both.

Tonight, Chamberlain, who went 4.2 innings with six hits, five earned runs, five walks and four strikeouts in his last start, will square off against Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester. Lester looked much better in his start against Baltimore going 7 innings with only four hits, zero earned runs, and nine strike-outs.

While Youkilis's consecutive on-base streak was snapped Wednesday night, he is still making American League pitchers look bad, hitting .429 with an OBP of .522.

In other good news, the Red Sox starters are all now hitting above .200, with Lowell, Youkilis, and Green hitting above .310.

The Yankees and Red Sox kick off their three game series at Fenway tonight at 7:10 PM, with Chamberlain taking the mound against Lester.

Saturday's game will be at 4:10 PM on Fox with A.J. Burnett squaring off against Josh Beckett, who's original start was pushed back a day due to his suspension.

Finally, Andy Pettite will face off with Justin Masterson in the Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN at 8 PM.

Marathon Morning: Red Sox Sweep The Orioles With A Twelve Run Rout

Its a good morning when you have a baseball game at 11 and you have nothing to do. Its even better when you get to see a young guy pull off a show-stopping performance on Patriots Day of all days. All while thousands of people ran in the 113th Boston Marathon.

Justin Masterson, usually the long reliever/eighth inning/all around lights out pitcher from the bull pen, got his first start of 2009. In 5 innings he struck out three, walked two, and allowed one earned run on four hits, all singles. Not a bad outing, considering he did all that on just 84 pitches. And thanks to the Red Sox very strong bull pen, that one run was the only one allowed all game.

The bats got going in the first, when Jacoby Ellsbury led off with a double. A single from Dustin Pedroia scored the speedy Ellsbury, and a ground out from Baldelli brought in Dustin, putting the Sox up by two.

In the second, Jason Varitek continued with his seemingly rejuvenated swing (its only a few weeks into the season, but I remain optimistic) and launched a solo shot into the monster seats, where fans were alternating between watching the game, and watching the marathon runners make their way through Kenmore Square.

The Orioles scored in the third, and it remained close until the bottom of the sixth. Another RBI single for Pedroia and a triple from David Ortiz made it 6-1, Red Sox.

The bull pen held the Orioles to a scoreless top half of the seventh, and then the Red Sox really got started. The Orioles faced 12 Red Sox batters, Mike Lowell had an RBI double and an RBI single in the inning. Also with RBI singles in the seventh were Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Youkilis.

The best part of today? With the exception of Ortiz, who's average is up to .196, the rest of the team is now hitting above .220. Pedroia got moving, so did Ellsbury, and Ortiz had a good day with two hits, two RBI, and a run scored.

Lefty pitcher Hunter Jones made his major league debut, and pitched a scoreless 9th for the Red Sox, while Rocco Baldelli left the game in the fourth with a mild hamstring strain, and Orioles third-basemen Ryan Freel left the game in the third after being hit by a pick-off attempt from Masterson. He went to the hospital as a precaution, but there is no news yet on when he will return to the Orioles line up.

The Sox now have a five game winning streak, are back over .500, and have now won their 66th Patriot's Day game, which started with a 21-gun salute from the Minutemen, and ended with a 12-run salute from the Red Sox.

"Wake"ing Up The Red Sox

Wednesday, Tim Wakefield flirted with a perfect game, and might have restored the Red Sox confidence in themselves.


It feels as though these first two weeks of baseball, the Red Sox have been trying to start a car. Sometimes the ignition turns over, but it doesn't last long. Maybe Wake's start is the jump they need to really get moving. It does not help, of course, that they had to face first the Rays, and then the emotionally charged and always difficult LA Angels.

Looking at the stats for the first two weeks of the season give me hope, however. They have allowed the second fewest runs in the AL East, the Rays have allowed two fewer, but the Red Sox are one of the three teams with more runs allowed than runs scored. So there is your problem. Well, Dice-K and Lowrie being injured doesn't help either, but truly, the issue is offense.

The Red Sox have just 35 RBIs so far this year. That's 27th in the league. Their on-base percentage is ranked considerably higher. Which leads me to one issue: they can't hit with runners on. While more of the team has moved above .200, Varitek (who's right at .200), Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Ortiz are all still below the .200 mark. Dustin is a traditionally slow starter, so his engine should start going soon, Papi had his first extra-base hit of the season, so maybe that will kick him into gear, and Ellsbury seems to be coming back, he's hit much better in the A's series than the others.

Maybe Wake's brush with history will rejuvinate the entire team. Right now, Youkilis and Bay are on fire. Youk's hitting .472 and Bay is hitting .345, both with two homers. Varitek's average might be a little low, but of his five hits, two are doubles, and two are home runs. He's hitting for much more power than last year and is tied with the lowest number of strike-outs on the team.

I'm an eternal optimist. So maybe all of this is nothing, and they're going to continue to be below .500 for the first time in years, but somehow, I doubt it. Maybe Tek is going to have another bad year, but what I've seen so far says otherwise. Maybe Bay won't hit 30 homers, but I think he will. And maybe Kevin Youkilis will slump after the All-Star break, but I have faith.

The Sox return home tonight to take on the Orioles at 7:10. Penny takes on Guthrie, who has looked pretty good in his two starts for the birds. The Orioles are a game back of the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. If Penny can locate tonight, and the bats can get moving, I think the Sox turn it around and get back above .500.

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 3)

This is the third and final stats-drive spring training analysis, mostly because spring training is now over. If you haven't read the first two articles, check them out: Part 1 and Part 2.

Today we're going to look at J.D. Drew and Jason Bay, then take a quick look at the Red Sox pitching staff.

We'll start with the oft-injured J.D. Drew. I think he's going to have a great year, because he's under no pressure to carry the team like he did last June. He'll bat 5th, in between Youkilis and Bay, which is a great place for him. J.D. Drew has come up with some of the most clutch hits in the history of baseball, no pitcher is going to walk Youkilis to get to Drew, and similarly, no pitcher would willingly walk Drew to get to Bay.

Drew's back will be the main concern this season, but with capable back-ups, Francona will have an easy time giving Drew the rest he needs. Think about it, when Drew came back from his back issues for the playoffs, he hit some seriously clutch hits and helped the Red Sox reach game 7 of the ALCS.

In 2007, Drew hit .321 with 13 hits, 1 home run, and 7 RBI in spring training, then hit .270 with 126 hits, 11 homers, and 64 RBI. Of course, Drew's biggest contribution in 2007 was the 14 million dollar two out Grand Slam in the ALCS , which we all remember fondly as the day Boston fans officially forgave J.D. Drew.

In 2008, Drew's Spring Training posted frighteningly similar numbers: .321 average, 9 hits, 1 home run, and 5 RBI. for the 2008 season, where he was absolutely on fire the month of June and then kind of...fizzled, Drew hit .280 with 103 hits, 19 dingers, and 64 RBI.

I'm beginning to wonder if a good spring is bad for Drew's regular season, which fills me with hope, because his 2009 spring training numbers are down. He hit .265 with 9 hits and 1 RBI.

So what's the projection for Drew this season? It's difficult to say, honestly, because we never know how many at-bats he'll get or how much his back will bother him.

My projection is he'll hit somewhere in the .270-.290 range with maybe 15 home runs, it could go higher if he is rested when he starts slumping.

Next we'll look at Jason Bay.

Jason had a monster season last year, coming off an injury-dampened 2007. How will he look in his first full year as a Red Sox?

In 2008 spring training, Bay hit .231 with 9 hits and 5 RBI. He hit .286 with 165 hits, 31 homers, and 101 RBI during the regular season.

This spring, including his brief stint at the World Baseball Classic, Bay hit .285 with 12 hits, 4 home runs, and 11 RBI.

So what's the projection for 2009? Can Jason Bay replace Manny's bat in the line-up? No. But he can get pretty close. I'd look for Bay to have another 30+ home run season, and bat around .280-.300. That could be overly optimistic, but I have faith in him

.

The pitching staff might be the strength of this Red Sox team, despite a talented line-up. With three aces, four if Smoltz or Penny come back with a good bit of their past form, and one of the best bull pens in the league, the Sox are looking to make another run at the post-season.

In this I'm going to look at the (current) starting five: Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield, and Penny. Then, in honor of the stellar 'pen, we'll look at Papelbon to close things out.

Beckett is slated to start opening day at Fenway against the Rays, so what should we expect from him? Will he be good but not great like last year, or lights out like he was in 2007? I'm banking on 2007, since he was never really healthy in 2008.

My projection for the 2009 season is that Beckett will be on form again, pitch about 200 innings, with 70-75 earned runs, 40-45 walks, and 185-190 strikeouts. I'd look for him to post an ERA around 3.15-3.25.

Next we have Jon Lester, who emerged as one of the game's elite southpaws last season, and should continue to build on that in 2009.

The only concern facing Lester this year is the number of innings he threw last year. He pitched 210 innings, and was clearly gassed by game 7 of the ALCS.

While I don't expect him to pitch that many innings again, I project he will throw about 190-200, with 70-75 earned runs, 60 walks, and 155-160 strike outs. I'd look for him to post an ERA of about 3.18-3.28.

Then we have Daisuke Matsuzaka, the heart attack-inducing MVP of the World Baseball Classic. Dice-K has looked good this spring, at the WBC and with the Sox. While you should never count on him to eat innings, or have a low number of walks, he's just looking to have a break-out year. I'd look for him to go about 176 innings, with 73 earned runs, 85-90 free passes, and 165-170 strike-outs. I'd look for him to post an ERA around 3.45-3.65, but don't discount him, it's just as likely for that ERA to settle out around 2.90-3.10.

Then we have Tim Wakefield, the longest tenured Red Sox, and still pitching strong. That's mostly due to the fact he's a knuckleballer, and thus the pitching motion doesn't wear on his shoulder like the normal pitching motion.

So will Wake look good again this year? Sure. He's consistent. He should eat about 186 innings, with 90-95 earned runs, 65-70 walks, and 115 strike outs. He should post an ERA of 3.85-4.00, but this won't matter as much if he can get the run support.

Tim Wakefield is going to give up two or three runs a game. His season record depends on how much run-support he gets.

Brad Penny is the newest addition to the pitching staff, and like many of the Red Sox additions, he's coming off of an injury. Assuming he recovers and gets back to some of his form, I'd look for Penny to go between 170-190 innings, 75-80 earned runs, and post an ERA of 3.20-3.50. I have a wide range here because I'm not sure how Penny will perform. It's a sort of waiting game with him.

And now we'll close this series off with one of the game's elite closers, Jonathan Papelbon.

Paps has posted great stats the past three years, with more than 30 saves in 2006, 2007, and 2008. I wouldn't look for that to change at all. Last year, Papelbon had 41 saves, I'd look for him to have between 40-45 saves this season and post an ERA of 2.60-2.80.

Papelbon is the capstone of a stellar bull pen, and should have fewer four, five, and six out saves this year because the road from the starter to Papelbon is paved with pitchers like Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson, lefty-specialist Javier Lopez, and many others.

With that, I end my stats freak predictions. What's my prediction for the season? I think the Red Sox win the AL East, but it's a tough road with the Yankees and the Rays, so I think we're in for a very exciting season.

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 2)

A few days ago, I posted an article analyzing the Red Sox and using my stats love to predict the 2009 season based on spring training. You can read that article here, if you haven't.This is the second in what will be a series of articles.

Today I'm going to look at the question marks of the Red Sox, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, and Kevin Youkilis.

We'll start with Mike Lowell, who had offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip.

In Spring Training 2007, Mike hit .170 with 9 hits, 3 homers, and 8 RBI.

In his World Series MVP 2007 Season, he hit .324 with 191 hits, 21 dingers, and 120 RBI.

In Spring Training 2008, he batted .237 with 9 hits, 2 home runs, and 5 RBI

2008 was a down year for Mike, mostly due to his hip issue. He hit .274 with 115 hits, 17 homers, and 73 RBI.

So, how does he bounce back? He's looked good so far in spring training, and the hip doesn't seem to be bothering him. In spring training this year, Lowell has hit .286 with 9 hits, 3 home runs and 4 RBI.

My prediction for the 2009 season? I think he bounces back to good form, maybe not the year he had in 2007, but pretty good. I think Mike will hit around .275-.290 (I give him a wide margin because of the injury) with about 150 hits, between 94-100 RBI and probably around 18-20 home runs.

Next we'll look at the Jed Lowrie. He'll be the short stop on opening day, but he'll have to fight to keep the job when Julio Lugo comes back, because the Red Sox don't want nine million dollars riding the bench.

Lowrie is difficult because he is young, and we don't know what to expect from him yet.

In 2008, he batted .098 with 4 hits and 3 RBI in spring training, then hit .258 with 67 hits, 2 homers, and 46 RBI in 81 games with the Red Sox last year.

So then we have to ask ourselves, how much does spring training really matter? Can it be used to predict a player's performance? The answer is no. It can give a some insight to what a player might do, but the law of averages does not take into account injuries, slumps, and hot streaks.

That being said, Jed Lowrie is a sort of dark horse in 2009. In spring training so far, he's batted .408 with 20 hits, 2 home runs, and 11 RBI.

So how will Jed do in 2009? Good question. I'm going to predict he'll hit around .260-.280, with maybe 80-90 hits. However, if his spring training is any indication of how he'll do this year, he could do much better. It will definitely be exciting to watch.

Next we move on to Kevin Youkilis.

Last year was the first year that Youk didn't slump a little after the All-Star break. The question is, at 29, can Youk repeat last year's stats or will they take a little dip? Again, this is where all the stats in the world can't predict the answer.

In 2007, Youk hit .375, with 18 hits and 5 RBI in spring training, and .288 with 152 hits, 16 homers, and 83 RBI in the regular season.

2008 was Youk's year. He finished 3rd in the AL MVP race and had a career year in terms of hitting.

In spring training, he hit .297 with 11 hits, 3 home runs, and 8 RBI.

During the regular season, Youk hit .312 with 1678 hits, 29 homers, and 115 RBI.

In 2009, Youk played in the World Baseball Classic, which skews his stats a little.

In the WBC, Youk hit .182 with 4 hits, 3 homers, 9 RBI, and 6 walks.

In spring training, Youk has hit .208 with 5 hits, 1 home run, 3 RBI and 4 walks.

So what does Kevin Youkilis regular season look like? If he doesn't slump after the All-Star break, I think Youk can hit around .285-.300, with 95-100 RBI and 20-25 homers. Of course, his OBP will be high, as usual, because he's a tough out, and he should be pretty good protection for Ortiz this year.

That's all the analysis for today. Next I'll look at J.D. Drew, Jason Bay, and the pitching staff.

Confessions of a Stats Freak: Red Sox 2009 Preview (Part 1)

Its time for a little baseball prognosticating. I'll admit to being a stats addict, and I'm going to look at the stats from Spring Training 2008, compare them to the stats from the 2008 regular season, and then see what conclusions I can draw for this coming season based on the 2009 Spring Training stats. Whew. Good thing I'm a stats freak 'cause that's a lot of numbers.

We'll look first at the Captain, and see if his 2009 will be better than 2008.

'Tek hit .320 in 2008 Spring training, with 3 homers and 7 RBIs.

In 2008, he hit .220 with 13 home runs and an astounding 122 strike-outs in 131 games.

So far this spring, Varitek has hit .206 with 3 homers and 12 RBIs. Maybe the lower spring training batting average bodes well for 'Tek, his 2007 spring training batting average was .108, and he ended up hitting .255 with 17 home runs in 2007.

My prediction is that 'Tek will hit somewhere between .229 and .245 for 2009. We'll see.

Next, we'll take a look at Jacoby Ellsbury

In 2008 spring training, Jacoby hit .209 with 4 RBIs and 3 runs scored.

During the regular season, despite slumps, Jacoby finished with .280, 47 RBIs, 98 runs scored and 50 stolen bases.

This spring, Jacoby has hit .250 with 8 runs scored, 5 RBIs, and 1 steal.

Look for him to hit around .300 this season, with more runs scored and more stolen bases if he can avoid the slumps. Since this will be (sort of) his third year in the majors, maybe he can avoid the sophomore slump? If he does, Ellsbury will be one of the game's elite lead-off hitters, combined with his great defense, should lead to an excellent player.

Now lets look at the AL MVP Dustin Pedroia.

In 2008 spring training, Dustin batted .179 with 1 homer and 4 RBIs.

The 2008 season, he stepped up his game considerably, hitting .326 with 17 home runs and 83 RBIs.

This spring, not including his brief stint at the World Baseball Classic, Pedroia has hit .370 with 4 RBIs and 10 hits.

Pedroia throws off the stats a little, because so far, he's been a slow starter (he hit .196 in 2007 spring training, then hit .317 for the year). But because of the World Baseball Classic, we don't have all his stats. If you figure them all out, Dustin's spring average is .279, considerably higher than his usual spring training average. That means I have to forget stats and just guesstimate.

I'd look for Pedroia to do better than his stellar year last year and hit around the .335-.350 mark. This may be overly optimistic, but he's got the will and the drive.

That's it for part one, next I'll look at Lowrie, Lowell, and Youkilis and see what kind of years they will have.

Four Big Questions for A Fantasy Baseball Beginner

As I begin my first foray into the fantasy baseball world, I've come up with more questions than answers. Here are a few things I've learned: fantasy baseball is way harder than fantasy football. My fantasy draft is just days away and I have no idea what I'm going to do. I've spent the better part of a week with the flu, so I used that time to watch 30 Clubs in 30 Days, as well as look at thousands of box scores and predictions and fantasy advice. But I still have questions. Here are the four big ones I've been trying to answer:

Question 1:

What's the best strategy? Do you put all your money on the big name guys and have the rest of your team come from late rounds? Or do you maybe spend more on two or three great players, then take all the good middle round picks to fill up the rest of your roster? Is it smart to try and take all the good pitchers so you can force trades in your league for better position players?

Here's why this confuses me: in my Fantasy Football league, you go for your QB and your RBs, because they get you the most points, then it just depends on who you want and when they come up in the draft. But fantasy baseball? There are a million different strategies and I have no idea which one works best.

Question 2:

How far do you trust your instincts? I fully believe that Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Bay are going to have phenomenal years. I also expect C.C. Sabathia to get injured or not do as well this year based on the sheer amount of work he did last year. But he's ranked high in the ESPN draft order and projected to have a great year. Bay ranks fairly high and Jacoby is not that far down, but tehn comes the question: if you are not going for a name like Sabathia, do you try and take Bay earlier than he's supposed to go to try and get a better price? It is all very confusing.

This also applies to currently injured players, like A-Rod. Do you still take him in the draft even though he won't be playing for a while? Or should you wait and try and pick him up as a free agent? (not that I would ever take A-Rod, but I'm curious.)

Question 3:

For our draft, its an auction draft, and we nominate players on our turn. Here's a big strategy question that I just can not figure out. Do you nominate the player you want or nominate someone to make others spend their money. Like if you want Youkilis as your 1B, but its too early for him to go, do you nominate Teixeira in hopes of getting your opponents to spend more of their money, thus leaving you with more draft power in the middle rounds, or do you go ahead and nominate Youkilis and hope you don't have to overpay for him?

I did two mock drafts and tried both tactics with mixed results. Sometimes I got the guy I wanted, sometimes I overpaid, sometimes someone else nominated them and the bidding got too high.

Question 4:

Homerism. I looked at my team, and I had Pedroia, Beckett, Bay, Lester and Papelbon on my team, and Drew and Masterson on the Bench. Drew and Masterson I don't mind because if they do look good, or if Drew has another month like he did last June, I can throw him into my outfield, but I began to wonder about the others. Did I pick Beckett and Lester because I think they are going to have a great year, or because they are Boston pitchers?

Papelbon, Pedroia, and Lester were all smart picks, I think. My gut is telling me that Lester will have a better year than last year, and Paps is always good, plus, he's in a contract year, which certainly doesn't hurt. Pedroia is off to a good start and I think he'll have another great year, he still wants that batting title, so I would count on him having a high average and on base percentage.

Beckett...well, he is a smart choice, but I can't tell if I took him because of his stats or because he's from Boston. The same question applies to Bay. There are a lot of good out fielders in the draft, and Bay is certainly one of them, but was my decision to pass on others based on the fact that I wanted the Boston player?

Like I said, its all very confusing. But when I took a close look at my tentative roster, almost all the players I want to draft are from the American League. So not only am I a "Homer" I'm also a league discriminator.

So those are my four burning fantasy questions. Next I'll try and highlight a few guys who, in my opinion, will be busts and sleepers.

The Beasts of the East: Who Wins Baseball's Best Divisions?

It seems like everyone is making their picks for who wins the AL East, I'm going to take it one step further and look at both the AL and NL East, arguably baseball's best divisions.

Lets start in the National League. The East is a powerful division, will the defending World Champion Phillies again take the top spot? Will the Mets suffer another late-season collapse? Can the Marlins overtake them both? Will the Nats actually look good this year? Barring major injuries and some fluky miracle season, here are my picks for the NL East:

1. New York Mets (2008: 89-73, 3 GB) Here's why: K-Rod and JJ Putz should ease the Mets' bullpen woes, somewhat. It will at least keep them from hemorrhaging so much at the end of games. They have a good offense anchored by Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, the Mets should be able to make the playoffs this year. If they don't, I give up, they must be cursed.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (2008: 92-10, WS Champs) They kept most of their World Series winning team together, backed by a great offense with players like Utley, Howard, Victorino, and Rollins. However, the injury bug tends to bite hard the year after winning it all (look at the Red Sox from last year: same team, new injuries). Look for the Wildcard to come from the East this year.
   
3. Florida Marlins (2008: 84-77, 7 1/2 GB) The Marlin's are a good young team on a tight budget, and could surprise everyone and take over the East this season. With Hanley Ramirez and excellent pitching, the Marlins are a force to be reckoned with. Look for them to hang around and make life miserable for the Mets and Phillies.
   
4. Atlanta Braves (2008: 72-90, 20 GB) Atlanta made some good moves in the off-season, with good pitching additions, but a weak offense will have them trailing the Mets, Phils, and Marlins this year. They are young, so look for the Braves to start contending more in a year or so.
   
5. Washington Nationals (2008: 59-102, 32 1/2 GB) The Nats are young. I wouldn't look for them to be great this year, but I would expect a better season than 2008. They'll still come in at the bottom of the NL East, but with a much better record.

Now on to baseball's toughest division. The AL East has appeared in the World Series 54 times out of 104 series. Of those 54 appearances, they have won the World Series 38 times. That's a pretty impressive division, and its only getting tougher. Here are my (mostly) unbiased picks.

1. Boston Red Sox (2008: 95-67, 2 GB, Wildcard) Boston made a few little moves in the offseason that will have a very big impact. "Bargain" additions of Smoltz, Penny, Saito, and Tazawa make a descent bull pen and good pitching staff into a phenomenal pitching staff with a lights-out 'pen. They have a few young guys to watch, both on the field and on the mound, and have several key players returning from injury in Lowell, Ortiz, and Beckett. This team came within one game of the World Series last year when they were hurt, now that everyone's back, look for them to retake the East.
2. Tampa Bay Rays (2008: 97-65, AL Champions) Everyone is still waiting to see if the Rays are "for real". They are. The addition of Pat Burrell certainly helped the Rays, but they may have the same issue as the Phillies: health. In order for the Rays to compete, Troy Percival needs to stay healthy, and the pitching staff is a little lacking in depth. The key cog in the Ray's wheel is David Price. He came in and pitched well late in the season, but once there's a legitimate scouting report out on him, major league hitters will figure him out. He has to stand up to the pressure and eat up good innings. If not, the Yankees may take back the second spot, and with it the AL Wildcard spot.
3. New York Yankees (2008: 89-73, 8 GB) Why, if they spend $400 million dollars on stellar players this off-season, are the Yankees in third? Because they spent millions of dollars on a very small number of players and neglected to give themselves some depth. CC Sabathia ate up a lot of innings last year, many times on short rest. It takes longer than a few months to recover from that and puts you at risk for injury. Burnett should do okay, and the addition of Teixeira will definitely help the Yanks, but without much of a bullpen and with starters who don't always eat up innings, the Yanks may find themselves losing games late. Mariano Rivera, great closer that he is, is also approaching 40, and will start to decline.The Yanks will keep things interesting, and be competitive, making things tough for the Rays and Red Sox.
   
4. Toronto Blue Jays (2008: 86-76, 11 GB) The Jays, in any other division, would be a playoff team every year. The loss of Burnett could hurt them, but they still have Halladay and a great pitching staff. They are looking for some players to return to form and some young guys to give them a lift, but probably not enough to compete for a playoff spot because their division is so tough.
5. Baltimore Orioles (2008: 68-93, 28 1/2 GB) Though the Orioles have a young, good offense, their lack of pitching means they will again be in last place in the division. Look for them to do a little better than last year, but with a division this tough, where they have to face the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Jays in 72 games this season, its going to be a difficult year.
   

News from the Weekend:

The Red Sox locked up LHP Jon Lester for 5 years, and ended talks (temporarily) with OF Jason Bay. Because of his free agent status at the end of the 2009 season and the down economy, Bay decided to wait and see what the market does. He would like to stay in Boston, but not at a cut rate when he could get more elsewhere.

Dustin Pedroia has a minor abdominal strain and will need a few days of rest before resuming baseball activities. The injury is minor and should not effect his opening day status.

The shortstop debate is over for the Red Sox, at least temporarily. Julio Lugo will have arthroscopic surgery on his knee tomorrow and will be out of opening day. Jed Lowrie will (most likely) start the season as the Red Sox shortstop.

Manny Ramirez started his spring training by being pulled from a game due to a hamstring injury. After trying to cut off a double in left field, he felt tightness in his hamstring and was pinch hit for in the bottom of the 4th inning.

The Weekend Wrap-Up: Lester, The WBC, and Boys Being Boys

As I've been watching the World Baseball Classic, which has been highly entertaining so far and which I will discuss in a moment, I've begun to question a staple of the sports world. The butt slap thing.

I'm a girl, we don't do the butt slap congratulations thing, and personally, I don't get it. I mean, isn't a pat on the back much easier? Me, being an astounding 5' 1" could easily reach these guys butts, but when you're taller, you have to reach down further, correct? So I was watching team USA's inning 6 route of Venezuela, due mostly to poor pitching choices on the part of Venezuela, and when Youk came in with a run, when Dunn got his homer, when Youk got his homer after the epic eleven pitch at-bat, as soon as he got around his teammates, butt slaps all around.

I'm just going to put it out there as one of those guy things that we girls will never understand, no matter how much we love sports.

Now that we've gotten the somewhat awkward question out of the way, lets get down to the business of baseball.

As I said earlier, the World Baseball Classic has been vastly entertaining. I've watched most of the games, I was shocked, like most people, when the Netherlands upset the Dominican, and when Australia came roaring back, down by four, to rout the heavily favored team Mexico 17-7 in Mexico City. Speaking of upsets, as I am typing this, Italy has just knocked team Canada out of the WBC. So now Italy and Venezuela will face off again to see who makes it to round 2.

Korea won Pool A in nail-biter fashion, beating Japan 1-0 after losing to Japan 14-2 on Saturday. Australia's win over Mexico was the country's first win in World Baseball Classic history, and it was an exciting game to see. This weekend was good for hitters, bad for pitchers, as most of the teams are using the long ball to put up huge scores, with four games ending with the winning team in double digits.

And now for a few questions.

For Kevin Youkilis: Is this offensive prowess going to continue throughout the regular season? Here are Kevin's WBC stats: 8 AB 3 H (2 HR) 7 R 3 RBI 9 TB 2 BB 2 SO.
If he kept that up for the season, he'd finish with a .375 average and .500 OBP, and he'd finish much higher than 3rd in the MVP race.

For Chipper Jones: What is going on? In seven at-bats he's had one free pass and five strikeouts. This is not looking good for the man they thought might finish over .400 last year.

For Dustin Pedroia: Does the poor performance at the WBC mean anything? Remember in 2007 when Dustin hit under .200 the first month of the season and then turned out a Rookie of the Year, World Series winning finish? Besides, Dustin has still come up with two clutch hits and two RBI, hitting from either the one or two spot,
which is two more than David Wright has hitting from the five hole.

For Venezuela's Manager: I question the pitching decisions you have made, but after seeing Italy handle Canada, I reserve judgement until after the rematch as to whether or not you made a mistake that first game.

For Alex Rodriguez: Could you maybe not make any headlines for the next week or two so that the sports media can talk about baseball and not your hip surgery, or your marital problems, or your club-house manners, or you having juiced, or your cousin who gave you drugs. Seriously, that list is ridiculous. I'd much rather be kept up-to-date on injuries, contract signings, and young guys making a splash at spring training.

No offense to A-Rod here, I know the press blows these stories way out of proportion and beats them into the ground, but still

Finally, on to my favorite Southpaw. Rumors have been flying around all weekend about a five-year, multi-million dollar contract the Red Sox have on the table for young lefty Jon Lester. This will be the third farm boy the Sox will attempt to sign to a long-term deal this year, as both Pedroia and Youkilis were locked up in the off season. The Sox discussed a long-term offer with their eccentric closer Jonathan Papelbon, but only managed a one-year deal avoiding arbitration.

Though Lester has not yet signed the contract, the Sox will most likely come to terms with him and Papelbon either this year or next.

Here's one last thing to leave you with. Picture day always produces a few funny moments, and here are the Red Sox outtakes. Enjoy.

Pink Hats, The Youk Fu, Some Aces and a Changeup

There's a lot to cover today, and since Spring training has officially started, we finally have news! On a funny note, Manny rejected another massively huge offer from the Dodgers. That's his fourth offer he's declined due to either: not enough money or not enough years. Really, at this point, Boras should be telling him to take anything because no one is going to pay as much as he wants for as many years as he wants because we know that Manny doesn't play unless its a contract year. Enough said.

Next on the list, the now-infamous and controversial pink hats. I've actually had several emails/comments/etc about the pink hats, either for or against. So here's the new plan: a poll. Its at the end of the article, so select your answer and we will get a clear picture of how Red Sox Nation (or any baseball fans, really) feel about the pink hats.

Moving on. A few days ago was Red Sox Photo Day. Probably one of the most ridiculous things in all of baseball, photo day never ceases to produce a few funny pictures.While we haven't seen all the pictures yet, here's the first few. We get a glimpse at the "Youk Fu" (to be explained later), we realize that the team as a whole is not particularly photogenic, and we see that Terry Francona looks a little like Ben Kinglsley. Click on the photos to seem them larger.

Here they are, from left to right, top to bottom:
Row 1: OF Jacoby Ellsbury, RHP Michael Bowden, 1B/DH David Ortiz, OF Jason Bay, RHP
Josh Beckett
Row 2: U Mark Kotsay, OF J.D. Drew, LHP Jon Lester, 3B Mike Lowell, SS Julio Lugo
Row 3: 2B Dustin Pedroia, RHP John Smoltz, RHP Brad Penny, RHP Jonathan Papelbon,
LHP Hideki Okajima
Row 4: RHP Junichi Tazawa, C Jason Varitek, RHP Tim Wakefield, 1B Kevin Youkilis,
Skipper Terry Francona

Along with being picture day, it also seemed to be father's day, with Little Papi and Little Lugo hanging out. Here are some super cute pics that made me go "awwwwwww"

Aren't they just too cute?

A few final things to address: The Youk Fu. I would try to explain, but I'll just let Kevin Youkilis do it for me.

The Youk Fu
by beisbolct


Guess the goatee is out...

Finally, lets take a look at the pitching staff. While Wake was a little rusty in his start, Beckett, Saito, Lester...they've all be sharp. Lester has even worked on his changeup a little more and if he continues to progress it through Spring training, he'll have a very dangerous pitch added to his already ace-like repertoire.

One thing you can't argue is that the Red Sox have massive depth with pitching. They have several guys who could start but will likely be in the bull pen because they don't need to start. So that makes the good bull pen even better. Then we have the consistent capstone himself in Papelbon, and I think with a pen this strong, he won't have to come in for any 5-out saves or even 4-out saves, which will keep him full of gas just a little bit longer.

What can I say, I'm excited about this season. I think they have great chemistry in the clubhouse with guys like Papi, Pedroia, Papelbon, Tek, Lowell, and Youk. They all relax and goof off in the clubhouse, but when the game is on, so are they. And I don't think we've seen the last of "Large Father" and "Pedroia Productions". I'm sure Pap's mom has a lot more embarrassing movies of her son that will make their way into the clubhouse this year.

A few final questions facing the Sox this year:
1. Will Jacoby steal his way back into America's heart by winning another free taco?
2. How much Double Bubble will Tito go through on average a game?
3. Will Pedroia attack the next person who calls him a "little guy" "jockey", etc?
4. Will the Youk Fu catch on as a national craze?

Finally, and, most importantly:

5. Will Pedroia ever beat Tito at Cribbage?

Your Pink Hat Opinion

I have no opinion. I\'m neutral. They aren\'t called the \"Pink Sox\" so why wear a pink hatNULL Real fans wear pink hats! Only for special events, like cancer awareness days They\'re okay if your a girl Other opinion.

View Results Free Myspace Poll

Baseballs Best* Fans, Then And Now

*sort of. Not an all-inclusive list, just a few of the best, then and now.

This is a list of a few of the most loyal, most interesting fans in the Majors. It covers over 100 years of history, betrayal, and rivalries that make baseball the dramatic, interesting sport that it is off the field. Since today kicks off the first official game of Spring training (yay!) it's time we salute you, the fans, for being there every season.

The Royal Rooters

The Royal Rooters, led by Third Base Saloon owner Mike "Nuf Ced" McGreevey, were a rowdy group of Irish fans who cheered on the Red Sox from 1903, where they were instrumental in distracting the Pittsburgh Pirates in the World Series, until 1918. They would clank glasses and sing songs, most notably "Tessie", and change the words to further torment opposing teams and inspire the Red Sox to victory.
The Rooters are a fascinating bunch, check them out if you get a chance.

Bleacher Creatures

Known for their "Roll-call" after the first pitch and their always amusing "(enter name here) sucks" chants, the Bleacher Creatures of Yankee stadium exemplify the essence of being a fan no matter how where your seats are.
They are loyal Yankees fans, and they will let you know it. The Bleacher Creatures are also master hecklers, and a staple at Yankees games for years.
In the Old Yankee Stadium, they occupied sections 39 & 37, and will move to their new home in section 203 when the new Yankee Stadium opens in April.

Damon's Disciples

Now disbanded, Damon's Disciples formed in 2004 when Johnny Damon, then a member of the Boston Red Sox, made the descision to not cut his hair or shave until the Red Sox had won it all. The leader of the "Idiots" of 2004, Damon's antics kept the clubhouse loose and his teammates laughing. It also endeared him to the Red Sox rabid fan-base, and created a fan group known as Damon's Disciples. Because the hair and beard made him look like Jesus, his followers donned wigs and beards and called themselves "disciples".
While Red Sox Nation will always realize that Damon was a huge reason for ending the championship drought, he will unfortunately also be remembered like this: "looked like Jesus, threw like Mary, betrayed like Judas".

Cubs Fans

While this isn't a specific "group" like the previous three, we take a moment to salute baseballs most loveable losers. Most teams fans would jump ship after a century of no rings. Or at least after their team has lost 9 straight post-season games, most likely due to the pressure of said 100-year drought. Now, whether you believe in the curse of the goat or not, you have to respect the fans who come out, year after year, disappointment after dissapointment, and cheer on their team.

Cardinals Fans

Since we just talked about the Cubbies, might as well mention their arch-rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. Cards fans are present and loud, St. Louis, like Boston, is a baseball town. Even when the Rams were the "Greatest Show on Turf", St. Louis maintained their love for the Cardinals.
So Cards fans, we salute you.

Giants Fans

Giants fans make this list because of their loyalty. As a Giants fan about Barry Bonds and you would get a defense better than the one at OJ Simpson's trial. These guys are fiercely loyal, and really into their team. I have to respect that, and admire them for sticking by their guys no matter what.

Phillies Phans

The Phils Phans make the list because of the sheer meaness and rowdiness of the fan base. I mean, their old stadium had a prison in it just for disorderly conduct arrests.
We give them props for have the guts to boo Santa, and generally make life miserable for visiting fans and teams.

Red Sox Nation

We end our show with one of the most knowledgeable, and one of the best traveling fan bases in all of baseball: Red Sox Nation. The Nation is massive, though many are bandwagon fans who jumped on in 2004 or 2007. However, much of Red Sox Nation is made up of true fans. Even when the Patriots were having their dynastic run, they couldn't replace the Sox in the hearts of Boston fans everywhere. There is no doubt about it, Boston is, and always has been, a baseball town.
Red Sox Nation gets props here because of their loyalty and their presence at away games. Its actually cheaper for most fans to fly somewhere and see the Red Sox then take in a game at Fenway, though those tickets are always coveted. When the Sox play the Orioles at Camden, I go, and Red Sox Nation far out numbers the birds fans there. They are always vocal, and always supportive of the team, no matter what.

That's All Folks!

Like I said, this was not an inclusive list, and I'm sure I missed quite a few great fans, and I'd love to hear about them. Fans are the lifeblood of baseball, and the crazier they are, the more I love them. So to all the baseball fans out there who are counting down the days until April, I salute you. :)