"Wake"ing Up The Red Sox

Wednesday, Tim Wakefield flirted with a perfect game, and might have restored the Red Sox confidence in themselves.


It feels as though these first two weeks of baseball, the Red Sox have been trying to start a car. Sometimes the ignition turns over, but it doesn't last long. Maybe Wake's start is the jump they need to really get moving. It does not help, of course, that they had to face first the Rays, and then the emotionally charged and always difficult LA Angels.

Looking at the stats for the first two weeks of the season give me hope, however. They have allowed the second fewest runs in the AL East, the Rays have allowed two fewer, but the Red Sox are one of the three teams with more runs allowed than runs scored. So there is your problem. Well, Dice-K and Lowrie being injured doesn't help either, but truly, the issue is offense.

The Red Sox have just 35 RBIs so far this year. That's 27th in the league. Their on-base percentage is ranked considerably higher. Which leads me to one issue: they can't hit with runners on. While more of the team has moved above .200, Varitek (who's right at .200), Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Ortiz are all still below the .200 mark. Dustin is a traditionally slow starter, so his engine should start going soon, Papi had his first extra-base hit of the season, so maybe that will kick him into gear, and Ellsbury seems to be coming back, he's hit much better in the A's series than the others.

Maybe Wake's brush with history will rejuvinate the entire team. Right now, Youkilis and Bay are on fire. Youk's hitting .472 and Bay is hitting .345, both with two homers. Varitek's average might be a little low, but of his five hits, two are doubles, and two are home runs. He's hitting for much more power than last year and is tied with the lowest number of strike-outs on the team.

I'm an eternal optimist. So maybe all of this is nothing, and they're going to continue to be below .500 for the first time in years, but somehow, I doubt it. Maybe Tek is going to have another bad year, but what I've seen so far says otherwise. Maybe Bay won't hit 30 homers, but I think he will. And maybe Kevin Youkilis will slump after the All-Star break, but I have faith.

The Sox return home tonight to take on the Orioles at 7:10. Penny takes on Guthrie, who has looked pretty good in his two starts for the birds. The Orioles are a game back of the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. If Penny can locate tonight, and the bats can get moving, I think the Sox turn it around and get back above .500.

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 3)

This is the third and final stats-drive spring training analysis, mostly because spring training is now over. If you haven't read the first two articles, check them out: Part 1 and Part 2.

Today we're going to look at J.D. Drew and Jason Bay, then take a quick look at the Red Sox pitching staff.

We'll start with the oft-injured J.D. Drew. I think he's going to have a great year, because he's under no pressure to carry the team like he did last June. He'll bat 5th, in between Youkilis and Bay, which is a great place for him. J.D. Drew has come up with some of the most clutch hits in the history of baseball, no pitcher is going to walk Youkilis to get to Drew, and similarly, no pitcher would willingly walk Drew to get to Bay.

Drew's back will be the main concern this season, but with capable back-ups, Francona will have an easy time giving Drew the rest he needs. Think about it, when Drew came back from his back issues for the playoffs, he hit some seriously clutch hits and helped the Red Sox reach game 7 of the ALCS.

In 2007, Drew hit .321 with 13 hits, 1 home run, and 7 RBI in spring training, then hit .270 with 126 hits, 11 homers, and 64 RBI. Of course, Drew's biggest contribution in 2007 was the 14 million dollar two out Grand Slam in the ALCS , which we all remember fondly as the day Boston fans officially forgave J.D. Drew.

In 2008, Drew's Spring Training posted frighteningly similar numbers: .321 average, 9 hits, 1 home run, and 5 RBI. for the 2008 season, where he was absolutely on fire the month of June and then kind of...fizzled, Drew hit .280 with 103 hits, 19 dingers, and 64 RBI.

I'm beginning to wonder if a good spring is bad for Drew's regular season, which fills me with hope, because his 2009 spring training numbers are down. He hit .265 with 9 hits and 1 RBI.

So what's the projection for Drew this season? It's difficult to say, honestly, because we never know how many at-bats he'll get or how much his back will bother him.

My projection is he'll hit somewhere in the .270-.290 range with maybe 15 home runs, it could go higher if he is rested when he starts slumping.

Next we'll look at Jason Bay.

Jason had a monster season last year, coming off an injury-dampened 2007. How will he look in his first full year as a Red Sox?

In 2008 spring training, Bay hit .231 with 9 hits and 5 RBI. He hit .286 with 165 hits, 31 homers, and 101 RBI during the regular season.

This spring, including his brief stint at the World Baseball Classic, Bay hit .285 with 12 hits, 4 home runs, and 11 RBI.

So what's the projection for 2009? Can Jason Bay replace Manny's bat in the line-up? No. But he can get pretty close. I'd look for Bay to have another 30+ home run season, and bat around .280-.300. That could be overly optimistic, but I have faith in him

.

The pitching staff might be the strength of this Red Sox team, despite a talented line-up. With three aces, four if Smoltz or Penny come back with a good bit of their past form, and one of the best bull pens in the league, the Sox are looking to make another run at the post-season.

In this I'm going to look at the (current) starting five: Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield, and Penny. Then, in honor of the stellar 'pen, we'll look at Papelbon to close things out.

Beckett is slated to start opening day at Fenway against the Rays, so what should we expect from him? Will he be good but not great like last year, or lights out like he was in 2007? I'm banking on 2007, since he was never really healthy in 2008.

My projection for the 2009 season is that Beckett will be on form again, pitch about 200 innings, with 70-75 earned runs, 40-45 walks, and 185-190 strikeouts. I'd look for him to post an ERA around 3.15-3.25.

Next we have Jon Lester, who emerged as one of the game's elite southpaws last season, and should continue to build on that in 2009.

The only concern facing Lester this year is the number of innings he threw last year. He pitched 210 innings, and was clearly gassed by game 7 of the ALCS.

While I don't expect him to pitch that many innings again, I project he will throw about 190-200, with 70-75 earned runs, 60 walks, and 155-160 strike outs. I'd look for him to post an ERA of about 3.18-3.28.

Then we have Daisuke Matsuzaka, the heart attack-inducing MVP of the World Baseball Classic. Dice-K has looked good this spring, at the WBC and with the Sox. While you should never count on him to eat innings, or have a low number of walks, he's just looking to have a break-out year. I'd look for him to go about 176 innings, with 73 earned runs, 85-90 free passes, and 165-170 strike-outs. I'd look for him to post an ERA around 3.45-3.65, but don't discount him, it's just as likely for that ERA to settle out around 2.90-3.10.

Then we have Tim Wakefield, the longest tenured Red Sox, and still pitching strong. That's mostly due to the fact he's a knuckleballer, and thus the pitching motion doesn't wear on his shoulder like the normal pitching motion.

So will Wake look good again this year? Sure. He's consistent. He should eat about 186 innings, with 90-95 earned runs, 65-70 walks, and 115 strike outs. He should post an ERA of 3.85-4.00, but this won't matter as much if he can get the run support.

Tim Wakefield is going to give up two or three runs a game. His season record depends on how much run-support he gets.

Brad Penny is the newest addition to the pitching staff, and like many of the Red Sox additions, he's coming off of an injury. Assuming he recovers and gets back to some of his form, I'd look for Penny to go between 170-190 innings, 75-80 earned runs, and post an ERA of 3.20-3.50. I have a wide range here because I'm not sure how Penny will perform. It's a sort of waiting game with him.

And now we'll close this series off with one of the game's elite closers, Jonathan Papelbon.

Paps has posted great stats the past three years, with more than 30 saves in 2006, 2007, and 2008. I wouldn't look for that to change at all. Last year, Papelbon had 41 saves, I'd look for him to have between 40-45 saves this season and post an ERA of 2.60-2.80.

Papelbon is the capstone of a stellar bull pen, and should have fewer four, five, and six out saves this year because the road from the starter to Papelbon is paved with pitchers like Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson, lefty-specialist Javier Lopez, and many others.

With that, I end my stats freak predictions. What's my prediction for the season? I think the Red Sox win the AL East, but it's a tough road with the Yankees and the Rays, so I think we're in for a very exciting season.

No Freakin' Way!

Sorry for the long hiatus, but midterms, projects and one nasty cold
have combined to keep me sleeping when not watching games or doing
homework. Notice how all of these things have to happen in the same
week? The Sox drop three games, I catch a monster cold, I have two midterms, a paper, and a project due and I have a massive shoot for the project that isn't due for two weeks. On to the craziest comeback I've ever seen. Period.


So, the Sox were down by 7 heading into the 7th inning, and I was contemplating the merits of being a temporary Phillies fan.

And then Pedroia hit an RBI single and scores Lowrie. Finally, the Sox were on the board. Here I am thinking: at least we weren't going to get shut out.

Pedroia Gets it Going


Then Papi comes up, and with two men on, Papi swings...its going...going...THREE RUN SHOT! PAPI HITS A HOME RUN!!!!
At this point, I call my dad, who has gone to bed and tell him to put the game back on we're only down by three runs and we've still got seven outs. Somehow, we can feel the momentum shifting our direction.

Papi's 3-Run Shot


Paps comes back for the top of the 8th and has a shut-down inning. And the momentum continues to shift. Then back come the Sox in the 8th. JBay gets on and bam! Mr. Clutch JD Drew comes up with a 2-run homer.

JD Drew's 2-Run Homer




Now the lead is down to one tiny little run. Then Mark Kotsay hits a towering 2-out RBI double and scores on a Coco Crisp single to tie the game. Even though Coco was thrown out at second (there were some weird throws in there, so he thought he could extend the single...) he is beyond excited, throwing his helmet and Fenway is going NUTS. PS...check out Mike Lowell when Kotsay doubles. I tell you what, he may not be playing, but he is still in the game.

Kotsay Doubles


Coco Ties the Game


In the 9th. Masterson is on and he gets into a little bit of trouble, but then gets Pena to ground into a double play to end the inning.

Key 463 Double Play


So we head into the 9th, Pedroia, Papi and Youk up. (Pretty good order, huh?) Pedroia grounds out, Papi strikes out and its all up to Youk. He hits one to Longoria and I'm thinking extra innings, but it bounces off the glove of Pena and Youk is on 2nd. They give an intentional free pass to JBay and take on JD Drew. (AKA, Mr. Clutch) JD whacked a screaming liner passed Gross to score Youk and end the game.

JD walk off single


And so the Red Sox staged the second greatest comeback in MLB postseason history (by one run) and force a trip back to St. Pete. The momentum shifted big time in the Sox favor, just like it did the Rays after the extra-innings victory in game 2. Here's hoping they can keep it and head back to the Fall Classic! If not, whatever. This game was uh-mazing!

On The Importance of Playing Wall-Ball

After a few days spent on vacation with my mom and sister (thus, sports were almost banned altogether) its good to get back into the news world. And to think, I've been missing all the minute-by-minute updates on Brett Farve!

Sportscenter:
Levy: Mort, what's happening with the Farve situation in Greenbay?
Mortison: Well, he got up to go to the bathroom, so clearly he thinks this meeting is going to go longer than he thought and he won't be able to hold it.
Levy: Any other updates? How does Aaron Rogers feel about this?
Mort: He feels that it is his turn, he thinks Brett can go to the bathroom, but how can he pee at a time like this? Aaron kind of feels like maybe Brett could be home in Mississippi using the bathroom, or in the front office.
Levy: So he's really being distracted by this whole situation, then?
Mort: If this continues, I wouldn't expect the Packers to be much of a threat this year. I mean, the Lions might actually win ten games (and Kitna might not get sacked every game), the Vikings could improve their quarterback overnight so they wouldn't have to lean on that fierce running game all season, and the Bears could have more than just an iffy defense, if they pick a quarterback that is not their number one or number two.
Levy: Well, that's all the time we have for this Sportscenter update. For baseball scores and any sports other than Farve-watching, go online to ESPN.com. Oh, and we love the Rays.

(sorry for the dabble into football, but I am SO over this Farve situation. We should be talking baseball and a little bit of pre-season football this time of year, not just about one washed-up player)

On to the Red Sox.

They look so much better. So much. Even in the loss, they were looking a lot better than they have in weeks. They seem to care about baseball again, they seem to be having some fun. Ellsbury has finally seemed to come out of his slump, Varitek has been on base more times than he's struck out in the month of August, Pedroia has struck out 4 times in the last 10 games (do we have a new Greek God of Walks?), and Youk has been settling into his new role as Manny. Seriously, when they got in a fight a few weeks back, maybe Manny transfered some of his bat-swinging mojo to Youk. He's having the season of his life, and I'm glad Tito moved him behind Papi. And Bay? Did you see the ball-rolling almost homer? Classic. And a second one for the Red Sox this year. Weird.



Tonight, Pedroia has the night off, which is not good, but well-earned, Jason Bay seems to be fitting right in and loving playing for Boston, and in other good news, the Platypus (Joba Chamberlain) is on the DL. No offense to the guy, but anything that hinders the Yankees makes me happy). Mikey and Papi seem to be OK, and Ellsbury has his wheels back. Here's to fifty stolen bags this season (hey, I can hope!)

Hey, the Olympics start Friday! Yay!

"Youk" Can't Stop the Beat

Well, I was worried there for a moment. My boy, my favorite pitcher, my rock in all the storms, gave up two runs in the first and I thought it was all over.
Of course, then Pedroia got things started with a single, and Youk took one to the Monster Seats. Two run shot, Sox suddenly tie the game. Big Papi singled, so did Mikey. Then Bay took one out of the park, a three-run shot and the Sox are in the lead.

They would make it through the order in the first inning and go on to win 12-2 after another two-run shot from Youk.

Lowrie was good (again. That guy is a beast w/RISP) The bull pen was good, and Jon-Boy made it to seven, so that's always good. (Since the bull pen is my main worry, anytime they have a good outing, I'm happy). Could trading Manny have been the best idea they've ever had? I wouldn't go that far, and I'm not jumping on the Bay-is-better-than-Manny bus. He is a better fielder, and his numbers are close to Manny's (hitting wise) but he's younger. Only time will tell, but so far, the trade has not hurt the Sox. That is always a good thing.

For some non baseball news, Long-time Patriot (he still works in the front office) Andre Tippett was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame today. (Yay!) As were Redskins (hey, I'm from VA) Darrell Green and Art Monk. Art received a four-minute long standing ovation from the crowd and the Hall of Famers present at the ceremony (90% of the crowd were Redskins fans, but in Monk's case, he deserved it)

All in all, it was a great ceremony (I watched that on espn while watching the Sox on mlb.tv) and all the new inductees were worthy, worthy guys. Now if we could only get Jim Rice into the baseball HOF...but thats a story for another day. Tomorrow we wrap up the series (and hopefully the A's) with Dice on the mound.


Oh, and this just in. About an hour after they told him he was traded, Boras called Theo on behalf of Manny asking to stay in Boston, they could drop the options on him and Manny wouldn't cause any trouble the rest of the season. Papi is wearing Manny's wrist bands, but hopefully, he will recover and be the happy, wonderful batter we know he is.

And yes, I know that title is way cheesy, but it made me laugh, so it stays.

A Brand New "Bay"

We squeaked by again, but we're getting on base. Which is better than we did in the Angels series. Maybe next game we'll start scoring more?

Welcome to Boston, Jason Bay. While I will miss Manny's antics, I'm okay with moving on. Here's the conclusion of the game: Jed Lowrie hits a sac fly to score Jason Bay. Jed Lowrie hits a single to shortstop, Jason Bay scores. Sounds like a broken record. And I liked how all the guys mobbed them at the end. I finally felt like they were a team again.

Yeah. I think he'll be okay. He's glad to be here, too.

"I had a Red Sox onesie when I was growing up," the British Columbia native told reporters, noting that his father was a diehard Sox fan.

In his bedroom as a kid? Posters of Jim Rice and Carl Yastrzemski.

(see video here.)

Bad news: Mikey hurt himself running out a single in the 10th. Not good. Good news? It doesn't seem too serious. Papi was a little out of it tonight, but I think he'll adjust. JD looked fierce, so did Pedroia and our bullpen. (Thank goodness!) More good news is that New York lost again. Bad news? The Rays won.

You know what I heard on the radio today? John Seibel (or his guest host, I don't remember) said that by trading away Manny, the Sox had traded themselves out of the playoffs. Are you serious? These are the same guys who said before the break that the Yankees wouldn't be a force this year, only to see the Yanks go on a hot streak. Now they're saying we won't get into the playoffs? We have as good a shot now as we had before the deadline. I don't think one player can make that much of a difference. Not on this team. Take away Manny and we still have the best captain around, JD Drew, red-hot Pedroia, speedy Coco and Ellsbury, beastly Youk, lights-out Lester, Big Papi, and World Series MVP Mikey. Those guys, especially the experienced, veteran players, will not let that happen.

Hey, I think my faith has been renewed...weird.