"Wake"ing Up The Red Sox

Wednesday, Tim Wakefield flirted with a perfect game, and might have restored the Red Sox confidence in themselves.


It feels as though these first two weeks of baseball, the Red Sox have been trying to start a car. Sometimes the ignition turns over, but it doesn't last long. Maybe Wake's start is the jump they need to really get moving. It does not help, of course, that they had to face first the Rays, and then the emotionally charged and always difficult LA Angels.

Looking at the stats for the first two weeks of the season give me hope, however. They have allowed the second fewest runs in the AL East, the Rays have allowed two fewer, but the Red Sox are one of the three teams with more runs allowed than runs scored. So there is your problem. Well, Dice-K and Lowrie being injured doesn't help either, but truly, the issue is offense.

The Red Sox have just 35 RBIs so far this year. That's 27th in the league. Their on-base percentage is ranked considerably higher. Which leads me to one issue: they can't hit with runners on. While more of the team has moved above .200, Varitek (who's right at .200), Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Ortiz are all still below the .200 mark. Dustin is a traditionally slow starter, so his engine should start going soon, Papi had his first extra-base hit of the season, so maybe that will kick him into gear, and Ellsbury seems to be coming back, he's hit much better in the A's series than the others.

Maybe Wake's brush with history will rejuvinate the entire team. Right now, Youkilis and Bay are on fire. Youk's hitting .472 and Bay is hitting .345, both with two homers. Varitek's average might be a little low, but of his five hits, two are doubles, and two are home runs. He's hitting for much more power than last year and is tied with the lowest number of strike-outs on the team.

I'm an eternal optimist. So maybe all of this is nothing, and they're going to continue to be below .500 for the first time in years, but somehow, I doubt it. Maybe Tek is going to have another bad year, but what I've seen so far says otherwise. Maybe Bay won't hit 30 homers, but I think he will. And maybe Kevin Youkilis will slump after the All-Star break, but I have faith.

The Sox return home tonight to take on the Orioles at 7:10. Penny takes on Guthrie, who has looked pretty good in his two starts for the birds. The Orioles are a game back of the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. If Penny can locate tonight, and the bats can get moving, I think the Sox turn it around and get back above .500.

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 3)

This is the third and final stats-drive spring training analysis, mostly because spring training is now over. If you haven't read the first two articles, check them out: Part 1 and Part 2.

Today we're going to look at J.D. Drew and Jason Bay, then take a quick look at the Red Sox pitching staff.

We'll start with the oft-injured J.D. Drew. I think he's going to have a great year, because he's under no pressure to carry the team like he did last June. He'll bat 5th, in between Youkilis and Bay, which is a great place for him. J.D. Drew has come up with some of the most clutch hits in the history of baseball, no pitcher is going to walk Youkilis to get to Drew, and similarly, no pitcher would willingly walk Drew to get to Bay.

Drew's back will be the main concern this season, but with capable back-ups, Francona will have an easy time giving Drew the rest he needs. Think about it, when Drew came back from his back issues for the playoffs, he hit some seriously clutch hits and helped the Red Sox reach game 7 of the ALCS.

In 2007, Drew hit .321 with 13 hits, 1 home run, and 7 RBI in spring training, then hit .270 with 126 hits, 11 homers, and 64 RBI. Of course, Drew's biggest contribution in 2007 was the 14 million dollar two out Grand Slam in the ALCS , which we all remember fondly as the day Boston fans officially forgave J.D. Drew.

In 2008, Drew's Spring Training posted frighteningly similar numbers: .321 average, 9 hits, 1 home run, and 5 RBI. for the 2008 season, where he was absolutely on fire the month of June and then kind of...fizzled, Drew hit .280 with 103 hits, 19 dingers, and 64 RBI.

I'm beginning to wonder if a good spring is bad for Drew's regular season, which fills me with hope, because his 2009 spring training numbers are down. He hit .265 with 9 hits and 1 RBI.

So what's the projection for Drew this season? It's difficult to say, honestly, because we never know how many at-bats he'll get or how much his back will bother him.

My projection is he'll hit somewhere in the .270-.290 range with maybe 15 home runs, it could go higher if he is rested when he starts slumping.

Next we'll look at Jason Bay.

Jason had a monster season last year, coming off an injury-dampened 2007. How will he look in his first full year as a Red Sox?

In 2008 spring training, Bay hit .231 with 9 hits and 5 RBI. He hit .286 with 165 hits, 31 homers, and 101 RBI during the regular season.

This spring, including his brief stint at the World Baseball Classic, Bay hit .285 with 12 hits, 4 home runs, and 11 RBI.

So what's the projection for 2009? Can Jason Bay replace Manny's bat in the line-up? No. But he can get pretty close. I'd look for Bay to have another 30+ home run season, and bat around .280-.300. That could be overly optimistic, but I have faith in him

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The pitching staff might be the strength of this Red Sox team, despite a talented line-up. With three aces, four if Smoltz or Penny come back with a good bit of their past form, and one of the best bull pens in the league, the Sox are looking to make another run at the post-season.

In this I'm going to look at the (current) starting five: Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield, and Penny. Then, in honor of the stellar 'pen, we'll look at Papelbon to close things out.

Beckett is slated to start opening day at Fenway against the Rays, so what should we expect from him? Will he be good but not great like last year, or lights out like he was in 2007? I'm banking on 2007, since he was never really healthy in 2008.

My projection for the 2009 season is that Beckett will be on form again, pitch about 200 innings, with 70-75 earned runs, 40-45 walks, and 185-190 strikeouts. I'd look for him to post an ERA around 3.15-3.25.

Next we have Jon Lester, who emerged as one of the game's elite southpaws last season, and should continue to build on that in 2009.

The only concern facing Lester this year is the number of innings he threw last year. He pitched 210 innings, and was clearly gassed by game 7 of the ALCS.

While I don't expect him to pitch that many innings again, I project he will throw about 190-200, with 70-75 earned runs, 60 walks, and 155-160 strike outs. I'd look for him to post an ERA of about 3.18-3.28.

Then we have Daisuke Matsuzaka, the heart attack-inducing MVP of the World Baseball Classic. Dice-K has looked good this spring, at the WBC and with the Sox. While you should never count on him to eat innings, or have a low number of walks, he's just looking to have a break-out year. I'd look for him to go about 176 innings, with 73 earned runs, 85-90 free passes, and 165-170 strike-outs. I'd look for him to post an ERA around 3.45-3.65, but don't discount him, it's just as likely for that ERA to settle out around 2.90-3.10.

Then we have Tim Wakefield, the longest tenured Red Sox, and still pitching strong. That's mostly due to the fact he's a knuckleballer, and thus the pitching motion doesn't wear on his shoulder like the normal pitching motion.

So will Wake look good again this year? Sure. He's consistent. He should eat about 186 innings, with 90-95 earned runs, 65-70 walks, and 115 strike outs. He should post an ERA of 3.85-4.00, but this won't matter as much if he can get the run support.

Tim Wakefield is going to give up two or three runs a game. His season record depends on how much run-support he gets.

Brad Penny is the newest addition to the pitching staff, and like many of the Red Sox additions, he's coming off of an injury. Assuming he recovers and gets back to some of his form, I'd look for Penny to go between 170-190 innings, 75-80 earned runs, and post an ERA of 3.20-3.50. I have a wide range here because I'm not sure how Penny will perform. It's a sort of waiting game with him.

And now we'll close this series off with one of the game's elite closers, Jonathan Papelbon.

Paps has posted great stats the past three years, with more than 30 saves in 2006, 2007, and 2008. I wouldn't look for that to change at all. Last year, Papelbon had 41 saves, I'd look for him to have between 40-45 saves this season and post an ERA of 2.60-2.80.

Papelbon is the capstone of a stellar bull pen, and should have fewer four, five, and six out saves this year because the road from the starter to Papelbon is paved with pitchers like Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson, lefty-specialist Javier Lopez, and many others.

With that, I end my stats freak predictions. What's my prediction for the season? I think the Red Sox win the AL East, but it's a tough road with the Yankees and the Rays, so I think we're in for a very exciting season.

Red Sox Roll The Dice-K

The lineups are out, and here's how the Red Sox pitching will break down:

1. Dice-K
He's a heart-attack inducing pitcher, and with the Ray's tendency to run, that may cause a little trouble for the Sox. However, Dice-K has shut it down on the road, so giving him the first start in the Trop is probably the best call Tito can make.

2. Beckett
He looked rusty, but not injured in his last start. And the game still went 12 innings, so even the high-powered, fast moving offense of the Angels couldn't take that much advantage of the ace. This time he'll be pitching on normal rest, so expect October Beckett (the 2007 version) to return.

3. Lester
Jon Lester is a beast. He will get the ball at home, where he is absolutely stellar.

4. Wake
His record doesn't reflect how well he has really pitched this year. He's going to give up a run or two, but in the regular season, the Sox had a hard time getting him the bats to back him up.

5. Dice-K (if necessary)
6. Beckett (if necessary)
7. Lester (if necessary)


I'm going to be honest, here. If I could split myself in two and have the neutral sports mind talk to the Boston sports fan, here's how the conversation would have been:

Neutral: The Red Sox are in the postseason, which should be an accomplishment in and of itself considering the division they play in and the injuries they have sustained.

Fan: They're going all the way!

Neutral: It is unlikely that they beat the Angels, but that would be a huge accomplishment for a team as banged up as they have been. Top that off with several inexperienced starters and the loss of Manny, it isn't likely.

Fan: I just don't want them to be out in the first round.


So that's my internal conversation with myself. The Boston fan in me just refuses to give up and believes the Red Sox are going to repeat, but the rational part of my brain realizes that the Red Sox are the underdogs.

Who ever thought that the Red Sox playing the (Devil) Rays would be the underdogs of the series?

Wet and Wild: Wake Blanks the Jays

Quick entry here, folks. (Papers to write, homework to do, and TV to watch - juggling between football and baseball.) Wake rebounded in fantastic fashion last night going 8 strong shut-out innings.

Double header today, we start off with AJ Burnett (on short rest) against Paul Byrd, then the night game is Jesse Litsch against Bartolo Colon.

Just for grins and giggles, something to cheer you up so you don't think about how we're still 2 games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East:

First, there was riverdance.
Then, it was the rain delay video.
Now, it's a whole other ballgame:

CHECK THIS OUT!

Wake Up The Bats

Finally, Wake gets the bats he needs to record a win. And it came on a night without Youk and without Pedroia. Yeah. Now add them back into the lineup, and we have a fierce offense even without Manny.

Wake had a great outing. And he left the game in the lead and they won. Yay!

Ellsbury hit a three run homer in the seventh. Uh-hu. I'm thinking maybe the slump is over. And that great catch. in the fifth...head over heels with infielders all around.

Ellsbury watches the ball go over the center field wall for a three-run shot in the 7th.

Ellsbury continues to roll after a great catch in the 5th.

Jason Bay has hit safely in every game he's played in a Red Sox uniform. True, that's only been six games, but he seems to be fitting right in with the rest of the boys. We win the rubber game against the Royals, and hey, we have a winning record on the road for this trip (just making lemonade here, people)

After a day off, here's to Youk's health (which seems okay) Mikey's health (which also seems okay) and Papi's wrist (which again, seems okay). I feel like this is a brand new team, like they have a new lease on the season. Now if only the Rays would start losing...